Wii to Dominate This Holiday Season, says Analyst

[Josh]

In the wake of the October video game sales data, the simExchange's Jesse Divnich has issued a report highlighting several key points.

In particular Divnich cited simExchange's prediction market, which currently forecasts the Wii to outsell the other platforms in November and December by a wide margin. In November, the Wii is expected to sell 912,000 units compared to 636K for Xbox 360, 438K for PS3, 844K for DS and 398K for PSP. Then in December, the Wii really jumps ahead with another 2.37 million units, followed by 1.56 million for 360, 695K for PS3, 2.02 million for DS and 842K for PSP.

The good news for Sony (if these numbers prove true) is that even though the PS3 would still be outsold, the monthly tallies for November and December are far beyond anything the system has seen to date. According to Divnich, however, the first-party software for PS3 still has to do better.

"Although the grass may look greener on the other side, the market still questions Sony's ability to generate strong first-party sales—a key factor to any console's success. Ratchet & Clank Future only sold 74,500 units in October, well below an already low market expectation of 129,000 units. Sony does have one last chance to prove itself in 2007 with its first-party titles with Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, which the prediction market expects 286,000 units sold in December," Divnich commented.

Looking at the market overall, simExchange is expecting tremendous software sales growth in the last two months of 2007. November is expected to produce $1.05 billion in software sales and December is expected to generate $2.19 billion in software sales. These totals would represent 31 percent and 73 percent increases, respectively.

Interestingly, Divnich also commented on the "success and cannibalization" for Activision's portfolio. Apparently games like Guitar Hero III and Call of Duty 4 are stealing the limelight from Activision's other products.

"Activision had one of its strongest Octobers on record, with Guitar Hero III as the number one selling multi-platform game in October. We expect this trend with another Activision multiplatform title, Call Of Duty 4, to achieve the number one spot in November. Currently, for November, the prediction market expects 733,000 units for the Xbox 360 version in November. However, the strong success of Call of Duty 4 has had a toll on another Activision title, Enemy Territory: Quake Wars, which only sold a disheartening 18,600 units on the PC in October," Divnich said. "It is without a doubt that Activision is not disappointed that Call of Duty 4 reigned supreme; however, it still is worth noting and bothersome that a publisher would set one of its own properties up for failure. This might be one title that might have actually been more successful if delayed until after the holidays."

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